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The Mucky Duck

This table puts everything for one swimmer on one page in one table. "Std" (for Chris) is 10th of the USMS Top Ten. "CanDo" is the time the Duck thinks Chris can swim. "Perf" is Chris's best actual time. "CanDo%" is "CanDo" indexed to the "Std". "Perf%" is "Perf" indexed to the "Std". "Hope" is the amount of improvement the Duck thinks Chris can achieve. (It is assumed that Chris gains 5 seconds for each turn in a 50 and 10 seconds for each turn in a 1500.) Click here for swims used in this analysis. — Click here for USMS data. (updated 5/19/15 11:01)

Data Analysis by The Mucky Duck for Chris Bass (age 70-74)

LCM

Event				Actual times				Estimated times
Strk	Dist	Crs	Std	Pace	Perf	Pace	Perf%	CanDo	CanDo%	Hope	Pace
Back	50	LCM	:45.98	:46	1:11.77	1:12	156%	1:07.71	147%	9%	1:08
Back	100	LCM	1:50.19	:55	2:39.47	1:20	145%	2:39.47	145%		1:20
Back	200	LCM	3:58.16	1:00				5:51.49	148%		1:28
Brst	50	LCM	:46.48	:46	:57.67	:58	124%	:57.67	124%		:58
Brst	100	LCM	1:47.24	:54	2:20.41	1:10	131%	2:20.41	131%		1:10
Brst	200	LCM	4:03.87	1:01				5:31.65	136%		1:23
Fly	50	LCM	:42.86	:43	1:04.15	1:04	150%	1:00.85	142%	8%	1:01
Fly	100	LCM	2:06.89	1:03				2:36.60	123%		1:18
Fly	200	LCM						6:23.70			1:36
Free	50	LCM	:33.59	:34	:44.22	:44	132%	:44.22	132%		:44
Free	100	LCM	1:19.51	:40	1:49.59	:55	138%	1:47.40	135%	3%	:54
Free	200	LCM	3:04.93	:46	4:48.31	1:12	156%	4:21.92	142%	14%	1:05
Free	400	LCM	6:54.10	:52	9:26.24	1:11	137%	9:26.24	137%		1:11
Free	800	LCM	15:06.75	:57	22:01.13	1:23	146%	22:01.13	146%		1:23
Free	1500	LCM	28:35.87	:57	49:37.00	1:39	173%	35:00.00	122%	51%	1:10
IM	200	LCM	3:43.60	:56				5:32.81	149%		1:23
IM	400	LCM	12:06.50	1:31				14:40.86	121%		1:50

SCM

Event				Actual times				Estimated times
Strk	Dist	Crs	Std	Pace	Perf	Pace	Perf%	CanDo	CanDo%	Hope	Pace
Back	50	SCM	:46.44	:46				1:02.71	135%		1:03
Back	100	SCM	1:50.48	:55				2:29.13	135%		1:15
Back	200	SCM	3:53.98	:58				5:29.42	141%		1:22
Brst	50	SCM	:46.23	:46	:57.37	:57	124%	:52.67	114%	10%	:53
Brst	100	SCM	1:43.23	:52	2:15.75	1:08	132%	2:10.07	126%	6%	1:05
Brst	200	SCM	3:50.91	:58				5:09.58	134%		1:17
Fly	50	SCM	:44.15	:44				:55.85	127%		:56
Fly	100	SCM	1:58.53	:59				2:26.26	123%		1:13
Fly	200	SCM	6:47.45	1:42				6:01.63	89%		1:30
Free	50	SCM	:32.94	:33	:44.14	:44	134%	:39.22	119%	15%	:39
Free	100	SCM	1:17.30	:39	1:49.15	:55	141%	1:37.06	126%	16%	:49
Free	200	SCM	3:02.40	:46	4:14.07	1:04	139%	3:59.85	131%	8%	1:00
Free	400	SCM	6:35.27	:49	9:33.77	1:12	145%	8:36.58	131%	14%	1:05
Free	800	SCM	13:48.51	:52	20:46.77	1:18	150%	19:59.75	145%	6%	1:15
Free	1500	SCM	29:31.64	:59	30:00.00	1:00	102%	30:00.00	102%		1:00
IM	100	SCM	1:36.05	:48	1:42.94	:51	107%	1:42.94	107%		:51
IM	200	SCM	3:55.76	:59	5:10.74	1:18	132%	5:10.74	132%		1:18
IM	400	SCM	9:23.42	1:10				13:51.20	148%		1:44

SCY

Event				Actual times				Estimated times
Strk	Dist	Crs	Std	Pace	Perf	Pace	Perf%	CanDo	CanDo%	Hope	Pace
Back	50	SCY	:38.03	:38	:57.34	:57	151%	:57.34	151%		:57
Back	100	SCY	1:25.31	:43				2:16.36	160%		1:08
Back	200	SCY	3:15.07	:49				5:01.23	154%		1:15
Brst	50	SCY	:40.40	:40	:49.90	:50	124%	:48.16	119%	4%	:48
Brst	100	SCY	1:31.47	:46				1:58.93	130%		:59
Brst	200	SCY	3:27.31	:52				4:43.08	137%		1:11
Fly	50	SCY	:37.43	:37	:51.07	:51	136%	:51.07	136%		:51
Fly	100	SCY	1:34.51	:47	2:13.74	1:07	142%	2:13.74	142%		1:07
Fly	200	SCY	4:00.90	1:00				5:30.68	137%		1:23
Free	50	SCY	:29.97	:30	:36.92	:37	123%	:35.86	120%	4%	:36
Free	100	SCY	1:07.56	:34	1:28.75	:44	131%	1:28.75	131%		:44
Free	200	SCY	2:34.41	:39	3:39.32	:55	142%	3:39.32	142%		:55
Free	500	SCY	7:18.29	:44	10:10.90	1:01	139%	9:50.46	135%	5%	:59
Free	1000	SCY	15:42.76	:47	21:20.83	1:04	136%	21:20.83	136%		1:04
Free	1650	SCY	25:41.95	:47	43:30.00	1:19	169%	30:10.53	117%	52%	:55
IM	100	SCY	1:22.30	:41	2:01.01	1:01	147%	1:34.13	114%	33%	:47
IM	200	SCY	3:12.04	:48				4:44.14	148%		1:11
IM	400	SCY	7:26.67	:56				12:40.06	170%		1:35

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